Marked Shot vs Aimed Shot in Multi-target Scenarios


As we're seeing a lot of large AoE situations in Nighthold, I put together a little comparison of Marked Shot and Aimed Shot (with Trick Shot and Patient Sniper).  both abilities are based on Weapon Damage and scale with MM's Mastery, so we can simply look at the difference in the coefficients to compare, without having to plug in Attack Power and Weapon Damage.

For the below chart, I'm including the artifact damage increase from Windrunner's Guidance at 3/3 and Wind Arrows at 1/1. I'm not including the damage differences from the crit chance and crit damage artifact traits, or from Call of the Hunter and Legacy of the Windrunners (which I'll go over below).


Baseline Weapon Damage Coefficient:

AbilityCoefficient:Artifact BonusTrick Shot STTrickshot MT
Marked Shot5.9410%
Aimed Shot2.9712%15%30%

From there we can put together a little table comparing the abilities with different numbers of targets, as well as including separate lines for Aimed Shot without Vulnerability and Aimed Shot with Vulnerability.

Targets12345
Marked Shot6.53413.06819.60226.13632.670
Aimed Shot3.3263.3263.3263.3263.326
AiS w/ Vuln7.6518.64910.64412.64014.636

Of course here, Aimed Shot doesn't start scaling from multiple targets (due to Trick Shot) until we introduce Vulnerability into the equation.  With Vulnerability, Aimed Shot is the clear winner for single target, though Marked Shot does more damage with 2 or more targets. 

In many AoE situations, we might be using the Explosive Shot talent, in which case this is the end of our little test.  However, on some fights, we may have portions of the fight with high AoE needs, and other portions with high single target or priority target needs. So I wanted to through Patient Sniper into the mix.  In patch 7.1.5 we have a new version of Patient Sniper, which increases the damage bonus of your Vulnerable debuff by 10% each second, stacking.  This in turn applies to trick shot damage.  So every second Vulnerable is up, Aimed Shot does more damage.  If we include 7 seconds of Vulnerable with Patient Sniper, our damage comparisons look like this:


Targets12345
Marked Shot6.53413.06819.60226.13632.670
Aimed Shot3.3263.3263.3263.3263.326
AiS w/ Vuln7.6518.64910.64412.64014.636
AiS w/ V&PS18.4169.51411.70913.90416.100
AiS w/ V&PS29.18110.37812.77315.16817.563
AiS w/ V&PS39.94611.24313.83816.43219.027
AiS w/ V&PS410.71112.10814.90217.69620.491
AiS w/ V&PS511.47612.97315.96718.96021.954
AiS w/ V&PS612.24113.83817.03120.22523.418
AiS w/ V&PS713.00614.70318.09621.48924.881
"w/ V&PS#" here means that vulnerability is up, and it has been # seconds since it began.  

With this new chart, Aimed Shot of course remains the clear winner in single target situations while Vulnerable is up. And Marked Shot is still ahead in most multi-target situations. However, when there are two targets up, during the last few seconds of Vulnerable, Aimed Shot pulls back ahead.  

Even with 3 targets, during the last second of Vulnerable Aimed Shot does very close to as much damage.  Though once we get to 4 or more targets, Marked Shot wins out by a fairly large margin, even at the very end of Patient Sniper/Vulnerability.  

Call of the Hunter and Legacy of the Windrunners

Legacy of the Windrunners is easy enough to calculate.  It has a 15% chance to proc everytime we cast Aimed Shot, and does .4*Weapon Damage,  benefiting from everything that benefits Aimed Shot except for Trick Shots against Multiple Targets (it does inherit the 15% damage buff from single target, though).  The expected value of Legacy of the Windrunner with a 15% chance to proc is the same as adding 15% of that ability's damage to each Aimed Shot. That's a fairly small buff to each Aimed Shot at roughly .414*weapon damage more for single target, scaling with Patient Sniper but not multi-target.  

However, Call of the Hunter presents a couple of problems in that it proc's based on RPPM, and it scales directly with Attack Power, rather than Weapon Damage.  We could plug in Weapon Damage and Attack power in order to add the damage from CotH to Marked Shot, but we still couldn't get a direct comparison without simulating a full rotation, because as an RPPM based ability, it does not affect each Marked Shot similarly; that is to say, you should get the same number of CotH proc's if you cast one Marked Shot every 10 seconds, or one Marked Shot ever 3 seconds.  So in the case of a large multi-target situation where you might want to spam Marked Shot as much as possible, CotH will provide the same amount of damage (on average) as if you're running your typical rotation with the exception that it will scale with the number of targets (that is, the number of targets with Hunter's Mark).  

Most DPS vs. Most Important DPS

The big deciding factor then, would be whether we want to see a lot of damage done to our priority target, and a little damage done to our AoE targets, or a moderate amount of damage done to all of our targets equally.  

For example, against 4 targets, Marked Shot does roughly 20% more damage than an Aimed Shot. However, an Aimed Shot will do nearly twice as much damage to the priority target, while doing about 25% as much damage to each of the additional targets.  

It's important to note, that we're not really talking about the difference between spamming a bunch of Aimed Shots vs spamming a bunch of Marked Shots. In most situations, the decision we're making is while we're in the middle of casting Aimed Shots (or Multi-Shots/Arcane Shots if we're low on Focus) Marking Targets Procs, and we need to decide if we want to cast a Multi-Shot and  a Marked Shot, resetting Vulnerable and thus the Patient Sniper timer, or if we want to use another Aimed Shot or two while at the end of Vulnerable and max Patient Sniper before we restart it all with another Multi-Shot and a Marked Shot.  

The difference between important dps and max dps is, I think, something we have to decide on a situation by situation basis, with a goal in mind of "how can I help my raid team kill the boss as quickly as possible?" There are of course situations where being a bit of a "meters whore" is the right decision, where the most important thing to do is to get down a pack of adds as quickly as possible. And of course, there are other situations where the best thing you can do is sacrifice your rightful place at the top of the meters in order to kill a priority target as quickly as possible, letting your team move on to more bosses and more loot (after all, the quicker you kill bosses, the more loot you get, letting you re-gain your place at the top of the meters).  

I'm curious to hear about how people think this will apply specifically in Nighthold.  Any specific fights in nighthold where you're using Marked Shot as often as possible to clear out packs of adds rather than finishing out your Vulnerability debuff with Aimed Shots?  Any bosses you think it's best to stick to your maximum priority target damage at the expense of overall damage?  Let me know in the comments or on twitter so I can compile a list. 

Stat Conversions & Ability Formulas

**Now (finally) updated for patch 7.1.5, including hotfixes as of the 17th of January, 2017**


Hunter Stat Conversions

Ratings at level 110 in Legion

1 Agility = 1 Attack Power
350 Crit Rating = 1% Chance to Critically Strike
325 Haste Rating = 1% Increased Haste
400 Versatility Rating =  1% Increased Damage
800 Versatility Rating = 1% Decreased Damage Taken

Weapon Damage Normalization:
WD + 2.8*AP/3.5

Global Cooldown = 1.5 second (.75  second minimum cap)

Focus Regen
Base Regen = 10 focus per second
Focus Regen per Second with X% Haste = 10*(1+X/100)

Cast-times with Haste Effects
Cast-time with X% Haste = CT/(1+X/100)
Cast-time with Trueshot = CT/((1+X/100)*(1.4))
Cast-time with Ancient Hysteria = CT/((1+X/100)*(1.3))
Cast-time with TS & AH = CT/((1+X/100)*(1.4)*(1.3))

Mastery by Spec

MM - Sniper Training
Base Mastery = 20% increased damage of all focus-spending abilities. 
Base Mastery = 5% increased range.
160 Mastery Rating = +1% increased damage for focus-spending abilities.
640 Mastery Rating = +1% increased range.

SV - Hunting Companion
Base Mastery = 4% chance to grant an additional charge of Mongoose Bite.
800 Mastery Rating = +1% increased chance for charge of Mongoose Bite.

BM - Master of Beasts
Base Mastery = 18% increased pet damage.
177.77 Mastery Rating = +1% increased pet damage.


Hunter Pet Stat Conversions at level 110 in Legion

Pets Gain:
60% of hunter AP
70% of hunter Stamina
170% of hunter Armor
100% of hunter Haste + 10% Attack Speed
100% of hunter Crit + 10% Crit
0% of hunter increased Crit Damage
100% of hunter Versatility
125% of hunter focus regen
Hati Gains:
115% of hunter AP
70% of hunter Stamina
125% of hunter Armor
100% of hunter Haste
100% of hunter Crit
0% of hunter increased Crit Damage
100% of hunter Versatility
Dire Beasts Gain:
135% of hunter AP
20% of hunter Stamina
125% of hunter Armor
100% of hunter Haste
100% of hunter Crit
0% of hunter increased Crit Damage
100% of hunter Versatility


Hunter Ability Formulas


Marks:



AbilityFormulaFocus CostADRMast.
A Murder of Crows28*AP [16 hits over 15 sec]; 1.7496*AP [per hit]30x
Aimed Shot (0/1)2.97*(WD+2.8*AP/3.5)50xx
Aimed Shot Windarrows1.08*(WD+2.8*AP/3.5)n/ax
Aimed Shot (LotW).4*(WD+2.8*AP/3.5) [per hit]n/axx
Arcane Shot2.16*(WD+2.8*AP/3.5)-5x
Auto(WD+3*AP/3.5)n/ax
Barrage6.912*(WD+2.8*AP/3.5); .864*(WD+2.8*AP/3.5)60xx
Black Arrow5.616*AP; 1.404*AP [per tick]10
Bursting Shot.648*(WD+2.8*AP/3.5)10xx
Call of the Hunter2*AP0x
Explosive Shot10*AP20
Marked Shot 0/35.94*(WD+2.8*AP/3.5)25xx
Marked Shot 3/36.534*(WD+2.8*AP/3.5)25xx
Multi-Shot 0/31.08*(WD+2.8*AP/3.5)-2 [/target]xx
Multi-Shot 3/31.188*(WD+2.8*AP/3.5)-2 [/target]xx
Piercing Shot.108*[focus spent]*(WD+2.8/3.5)20:100xx
Sidewinders (0/3)3.24*AP-50
Sidewinders (3/3)3.564*AP-50
Volley1.08*AP [per hit]3xx
Wind Burst8.64*(WD+2.8*AP/3.5)20xx


Beast Mastery:


AbilityFormulaFocus CostADRMastH CD
A Murder of Crows25.92*AP [16 hits over 15 sec]; 1.62*AP 30xx
AutoshotWD+3*AP/3.5n/axx
Barrage11.52*(WD+2.8*AP/3.5); 1.44*(WD+2.8*AP/3.5)60x
Chimaera Shot3.168*(WD+2.8*AP/3.5)-10x
Cobra Shot 0/34.964*(WD+2.8*AP/3.5)40x
Dire Beast Melee 0/11.09*2*1.35*AP/3.5n/axxx
Dire Frenzy1.09*1.4*(1.5*2*0.6*AP/3.5) [per hit]
Dire Frenzy BM 1/11.09*1.61*(1.5*2*0.6*AP/3.5) [per hit]
Jaws of Thunder (pet)1.09*0.5*1.65*1.632*APn/ax
Jaws of Thunder (hati)1.09*0.5*1.15*1.65*1.632*APn/ax
Kill Command Pet 0/31.09*2*1.65*1.5*AP30xxx
Kill Command Hati 0/31.09*1.65*APn/axxx
Multi-Shot (0/3)1*(WD+2.8*AP/3.5) [per hit]40x
Pet Basic Attack1.09*1.1*1.5*.333*AP (+-18%)25xx
Melee Attack Pet1.09*1.5*2*0.6*AP/3.5n/axxx
Melee Attack Hati1.09*2*1.15*AP/3.5n/axxx
Stampede1.09*31.05*AP; 1.725*AP [per hit]0xx
Stomp!1.09*3*1.35*AP0xxx
Titan's Thunder Pet1.09*0.5*1.5*0.6*APn/ax
Titan's Thunder Hati1.09*0.5*1.15*AP0x
Titan's Thunder DB1.09*0.5*1.35*AP0x
Titan's Thunder DF2.2*AP0
Volley1.5*AP [per hit]3x\

Survival:


AbilityFormulaFocus CostADRH CD
A Murder of Crows25.92*AP [16 hits over 15 sec]; 1.62*AP 30x
Melee Auto AttackWD+3.6*AP/3.50x/
Butchery 0/36.2*(WD+3.3*AP/3.5) [per hit]40xx
Caltrops.564*AP [per tick]0x
Carve 0/32.889*(WD+3.3*AP/3.5)40xx
Dragonsfire Grenade3.76*AP [initial] + 8*1.537*AP [8 ticks]0
Expert Explosive Trap6.554*AP [initial] + 10*.469*AP [10 ticks]0
Expert Steel Trap5*AP [initial] + 15*1.254*AP [15 ticks]0
Explosive Trap 0/33.745*AP [initial] +10*.469*AP [10 ticks]0
Flanking Strike (hunter)1.5*3.478*(WD+3.3*AP/3.5)50xx
Flanking Strike (pet)3.745*AP50xx
Fury of the Eagle1.125*AP; 1.25*AP [per hit]0x
Lacerate 0/31.007*AP [per tick]35x
Mongoose Bite 0/32.675*(WD+3.3*AP/3.5)0xx
Raptor Strike 0/33.21*(WD+3.3*AP/3.5)25x
Serpent Sting2.068*AP [per tick]n/a
Spitting Cobra1.4*APn/a
Steel Trap1.254*AP [per tick]0
Throwing Axes3.125*AP15xx


Notes:
  • In-game tooltips are not always changed when hotfixes are applied, so they will often show different amounts from what you'll do. Because websites like wowhead and wowdb use the in-game client information to build their sites, they will also often show outdated information. I'll be attempting to keep this list updated every time there is a hotfix, though if anyone sees one I missed, feel free to leave a note in the comments below, and I'll get them updated. 
  • "ADR" stands for Armor Damage Reduction, and as such, these abilities will have their damage reduced by the target's armor (.6802 modifier when calculating damage done by a level 110 player against a level 113 raid boss, see below for the Legion Armor Table). 
  • "H CD" stands for "Hasted Cooldown". Abilities checked in this column have lower CDs with higher haste values. Calculate the same as cast times; e.g. Kill Command has a base CD of 7.5 seconds, I have 20% haste, the CD of Kill Command will be 7.5/(1+.2) = 5.83 seconds. 
  • "Mast." stands for mastery. This column denotes which abilities are affected by the spec's mastery. 
  • For BM hunters, no abilities "double dip" in mastery.  Beast Cleave and Jaws of Thunder, for example, both benefit from mastery in that the original ability their damage is based off of benefits from mastery, but they do not get a second mastery bonus in addition. Similarly, these abilities cannot crit; if the original ability the damage is inherited from is a crit, then these abilities base their damage off the original crit damage, but do not "double dip". 
  • "WD" stands for Weapon Damage. Calculate using either the average from your weapon's tooltip, or use min. and max. in your calculations for the entire range (which is cumbersome, but helps avoid rounding errors when investigating hotfixes).
  • "AP" stands for attack power. All abilities (including pets) are shown based on the Hunter's Attack Power. 
  • For abilities affected by Artifact Traits, use the percent increase from the artifact as another coefficient. For example, if you have 4/3 ranks in the Pack Leader trait, your Kill Command has 20% increased damage. To calculate this, insert "*1.2" at the end of the formula.

Armor Table:

The Formula for calculating the damage reduction from armor is: 

DR% = K / (K+A) 

For Legion level creatures, the K and Armor values are:
Level Level Constant KOtherCreature ArmorMageCreature Armor
100361015361229
101397323131850
102437323881911
103481224671974
104529625502041
105582926382110
106641527292184
107664228262261
108688029272342
109713230352428
110739031442516
111764832542604
112790633642692
113816434742779

The significant numbers from that table for most raiders are a level 110 player hitting a level 113 raid boss. That is:

7390 / (7390 + 3474) = 0.680228

This gives us the physical damage reduction from armor, 68.02%.